AI & MA is going to fly high in Future

This is a contributed piece from Emil Eifrem, CEO of Neo Technology, the company behind graph database, Neo4j.

Amazon has taught us the value of being able to predict what else customers might want to buy, by analysing online sales data. It’s a lesson that any retailer wishing to survive needs to start learning – and applying.
But to do so, retailers need not only to know about my past purchases, but be able to instantly combine this knowledge with any new interest shown during the customer’s current visit to offer recommendations.

How? Simple: they need to understand the customer intent by analysing a host of clues offered by the customer, interrogate this data at lightning speed to serve up uncannily relevant recommendations and so generate great, tailored offers – offers that become increasingly more accurate, as the recommendation engine gathers more data and learns more about the customer in the process.

To accomplish this requires a combination of NL (Natural Language) processing, ML (Machine Learning), accurate predictive analytics, a distributed, real-time storage and processing engine and, I contend, a graph database to make all the real-time data connections required.

Why do I say that? Let’s look at a real-world example of just such a combination – eBay’s AI-based ShopBot is built on top of a graph database. That graph layer directly enables the system to answer sophisticated questions like, ‘I am looking for a brown, leather Coach messenger bag costing less than $100, please find me those’.

ShopBot asks qualifying questions and will quickly serve up relevant product examples to choose from. The functionality is impressive – you can send the bot a photo with a direction such as, ’I like these sunglasses, can you find similar models?’ and it will employ visual image recognition and machine learning to figure out similar products for you, in milliseconds.

All this is done by using NL processing techniques to figure out your intent (text, picture and speech, but also spelling and grammar intention are parsed for meaning and context), while the graph database (using Neo4j) helps to refine the search against inventory with context – a way of representing connections based on shopper intent that’s shaping up to be key to the bot making sense of the world in order to help you.

That context is stored, so that the ShopBot can remember it for future interactions. So when a shopper searches for ‘brown bags’ for example, it knows what details to ask next like type, style, brand, budget or size. And as it accumulates this information by traversing the graph database, the application is able to quickly zero in on specific product recommendations.

Why relational isn’t your best friend here
Tapping into human intent like this and delivering highly responsive, accurate help is the Holy Grail of what applied AI can offer. In this discussion on conversational commerce the example is well made: in response to a statement, My wife and I are going camping in Lake Tahoe next week, we need a tent, most search engines would react to the word ‘tent’ and the additional context regarding location, temperature, tent size, scenery, etc. is typically lost.

This matters, as it’s this specific information that actually informs many buying decisions – and which graphs help empower computers to learn. Context drives sophisticated shopping behaviour, and graph technology is the way to open it up for a retailer.

But you can’t get there the way you’re going now. The traditional way of storing data is ‘store and retrieve’, but that doesn’t give you much in terms of context and connections – and for your searches and recommendations to be useful, context needs to come in.

To help improve meaning and precision, you need richer search, which is what AI-enriched applications such as chatbots give us.

Graph databases are now one of the central pillars of the future of applied AI, and graph is shaping up as the most practical way of getting there.

Stop the Storm of Diabetes

The body’s blood sugar is controlled by insulin, a hormone produced by the pancreas in the abdomen. Insulin acts on food in the bloodstream to move glucose into cells, where it is broken down to produce energy.

Diabetes is a chronic condition in which cells are unable to break down glucose into energy. This is due to insufficient production of insulin or the insulin produced does not function properly. The former, which is much more common, is called type 2 diabetes, and the latter, is type 1 diabetes.
During pregnancy, it is possible for blood glucose levels to reach levels that the insulin produced is insufficient for all of it to be moved into cells (gestational diabetes).

Many people have raised blood glucose levels that are not high enough for a diagnosis of diabetes (prediabetes), which is a wake-up call that the person is en route to diabetes.

Data from National Health and Morbidity Surveys
The prevalence of diabetes in Malaysia’s National Health and Morbidity Survey in 1986 was 6.3%. This increased to 8.2% in the National Health and Morbidity Survey in 1996 and 17.5% in the National Health and Morbidity Survey in 2015.

At the current rate of increase, about one in five Malaysians will be diabetic in 2020. The findings from NHMS 2015 of the overall prevalence of diabetes were:

• There was an increase in overall prevalence with age, with an increasing trend from 5.15% in the 18-19 years age group to a peak of 39.1% in the 70-74 years age group
• The overall prevalence in females was 18.3% and 16.7% in males
• Indians had the highest overall prevalence at 22.1%, followed by Malays at 14.6%, Chinese at 12.0% and Other Bumiputras at 10.7%.
Of the known diabetics, the findings included:
• The prevalence of known diabetes was 8.3% with an increasing trend from 0.7% in the 20-24 years age group reaching a peak of 27.9% in the 70-74 years age group
• The prevalence of known diabetics in the urban areas was 8.7% and 7.2% in the rural areas
• The prevalence in females was 9.1% and 7.6% in males
• Indians had a prevalence of known diabetes at 16.0%, followed by the Malays at 9.0%, Chinese at 7.7% and Other Bumiputras at 6.8%
• 25.1% claimed that they were on insulin therapy and 79.1% on oral anti-diabetic medicines within the past two weeks
• 82.3% had received diabetes diet advice from healthcare personnel
• Healthcare professionals had advised 69.6% to lose weight.
• Healthcare professionals had advised 76.8% to become more physically active or start exercising.
• 79.3% sought treatment at Health Ministry facilities (59.3% at clinics and 20.0% at hospitals) and 18.7% at private facilities (15.1% at clinics and 3.6% at hospitals);
• About 1.5% self-medicated by purchasing medicines directly from pharmacies; and 0.5% were on traditional and complementary medicine.
Of the undiagnosed diabetics, the findings included:
• The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 9.2%, with an increasing trend from 5.5% in the 18-19 years age group reaching a peak of 13.6% in the 65-69 years age group
• Prevalence was 9.2% in females and 9.1% in males;
• Indians had a prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes at 11.9%, followed by the Malays at 9.8%, Others at 8.6%, Other Bumiputras at 8.1% and Chinese at 7.7%.
Of the pre-diabetics (the term used in NHMS 2015 was impaired fasting glucose), the findings included:
• The prevalence was 4.7%;
• There were no statistical differences by age groups, gender and between urban and rural areas;
• Indians had a prevalence of pre-diabetes at 7.7%, followed by Malays at 5.2%, Others at 4.3% and Chinese at 3.8%.
Going forward

Whenever experiencing symptoms such as increased thirst, frequent urination (especially at night), significant fatigue, weight loss, muscle loss, itching in the genitals, recurrent fungal infections, delayed wound healing, and blurred vision, individuals should seek medical attention promptly.

Type 1 diabetes can develop over weeks or even days.

Overweight, obesity, and inactivity often associate with Type 2 diabetes. The overweight comprises 37.3% of the Malaysian population and the obese 12.9%. The estimation shows that 51.6% of the population is physically inactive. Many people with type 2 diabetes are unaware they have the condition because the early symptoms are often non-specific.

The complications of diabetes are multitude and include an increased risk of heart disease and stroke; damage to nerves; damage to the retina in the eyes; kidney disease and failure; foot ulcer; erectile dysfunction; sexual hypo function in women; miscarriage and stillbirth.

Due to delayed detection, diabetics are more likely to present for the first time with complications. The increase in the number of diabetics seeking treatment will increase the country’s health expenditure substantially. Diabetic complications will further increase this.

With about 80% of diabetes patients currently seeking treatment at Health Ministry facilities, the burden to the country will be substantial.
The medical profession recently received directives from the Health Ministry on Ebola virus disease management. This is important for preparedness, although there is no reported case of Ebola infection in Malaysia, as the mortality from Ebola infection is around 50%.

According to the World Health Organization, Malaysia has no operational policy /strategy /action plan for diabetes and the reduction of physical inactivity.
This incongruence is difficult to understand particularly when the diabetes epidemic in the country continues unabated.

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